you2idea@video:~$ watch 3WtHtZOotQU [54:10]
// transcript — 1330 segments
0:02 All right, Sam. Today I got six trends that I'm watching that I want to tell
0:05 you about. My Spidey sense is tingling on these trends, and I just need
0:08 somebody to talk to, and you're my guy. >> How masculine of you to say it's
0:12 tingling. >> I love that. >> My spidey sense is throbbing right now.
0:26 All right, first one. Alcohol is in the gutter. So, I sent you this tweet. So,
0:32 it says spirit inventories are soaring and it shows Kari and uh you know a
0:37 bunch of other spirit brands that honestly I don't know how to pronounce
0:39 because they're front of French but basically from 2011 to 2025 there's this
0:44 up and to the right trend. It's basically a measure of inventory as a
0:49 percentage of sales. And so it goes from like what used to be under 20%. To in
0:55 some of these cases like 60% 70% 80% you know it's a crazy crazy rise. And this
1:01 lines up um with I guess my lived experience in our social circle, our age
1:06 group. Drinking ain't cool anymore. Being healthy is cool and drinking isn't
1:10 cool. What are you going to learn that when you see me do something healthwise,
1:13 you should just expect that it's going to be popular in 3 years? I I gave up
1:19 booze in 2013 or 14, I think 14. So yes, uh I didn't actually think this was going to be that
1:26 popular. I did not think that this was going to be a trend, but we actually
1:29 wrote about this. We had um my old company, The Hustle, had a newsletter
1:32 called Trends, and we wrote about the rise of non-alcoholic beer. And it was
1:36 actually Steph Smith, who's uh we all know is an amazing person, very smart.
1:39 She pitched me this idea, and I was like, I don't I don't buy it. I think
1:43 this is insane. I don't I I really don't believe it, but go ahead, write the
1:46 article. And she So, a lot of guys, a lot of people have been calling this.
1:49 And um I actually, even though I'm sober, I did not think that this was
1:53 going to be as real as it is. And so I think there's an interesting question
1:56 which is I don't think people fundamentally just become better better
2:01 behaving over time. I think they substitute. >> Yeah. They're just using drugs.
2:05 >> Yeah. So what's the substitute? I think is the interesting question. Right. So
2:08 you had you had non-alcoholic we non-alcoholic beers. We had I think the
2:11 guy from what is it called? Athletic Brewing Co. on the podcast before.
2:14 >> Yeah. They're awesome. >> Um we you know Kin Spirits. There's been
2:18 all these like startup brands that are in the non-alcoholic um space. But then
2:23 you have just substitutes, straight substitutes. So weed, it's probably a
2:27 winner. Where else have people gone? Where where are people getting the
2:31 behavior? What what jobs to be done were done by alcohol that are now being done
2:35 by something else? Like is it literally just Tik Tok scrolling, right? Like
2:38 people are literally just not going out because they're at home on their phones.
2:41 And when you're not going out, you're not drinking as much. What I'm noticing
2:46 in my life is um so I you know it's I I could never tell if I only hang out with
2:49 people who don't drink because I don't drink, right? Or if it's like truly uh
2:55 popular or less popular, but Zen, I mean nicotine, some type of like nonsmoke
3:00 nicotine. So vaping. I mean although none of my friends vape uh but everyone
3:04 does uh do some type of like Zen. The second one is the rise of psychedelics.
3:08 I have just a crazy amount of friends that are regularly and I mean like every
3:12 six months doing some type of like journey that they call it which uh I
3:16 think has like a different set of uh issues but then um I think like exercise
3:21 to be honest like it just seems like more people are like into exercising.
3:26 Have you seen this company called Ultra? I think they're kind of like a Zen type
3:30 company. So Ultra, founded in 2025, which is last year, just raised $1
3:36 million to scale non-nicotine focus pouches. So they basically taken the
3:41 nicotine thing, but they're branding it as like a focus tool. And um they've
3:46 already sold 1 million cans in 6 months and claims a position number one amongst
3:51 nicotine-free pouches globally. While Zen dominates the nicotine pouch market,
3:54 Ultra is targeting a different segment. High performers who want cognitive
3:58 enhancement without addiction. It's a $16 can. Their round is led by blah blah
4:03 blah. I think Austin Reef maybe in this or he was definitely
4:06 >> I think he was bragging about it. Yeah, >> he's very bullish on this company.
4:10 >> The the website says powering top performers at Facebook Goldman Seoia.
4:16 Like it's pretty funny that like that is considered cool now.
4:19 >> Your cracked out friend's secret weapon. Listen, when you and I were just getting
4:24 started in San Francisco, it used to be a thing that people would protest at the
4:29 Google bus. And I even remember there was an era where they were flipping over
4:32 smart cars because they thought that smart cars like represented like techies
4:35 for some reason. I don't I don't understand that. But do you remember
4:39 that? Now they're trying to be cool by saying that people who work at RAMP chew
4:44 our nicotine. That's just crazy. Times have changed. >> By the way, you were also early on the
4:48 nicotine trend. >> Yeah, except I did. I was a I was a I
4:52 was a skull guy. I loved uh I loved tobacco. >> I remember before we went on stage, we
4:57 were doing our first live show in Vancouver or Victoria and me and you
5:01 didn't really have a good idea of what we were getting into and we saw that
5:06 this like entire theater full like I don't know 2,000 3,000 people but it
5:11 looked grand like you have a photo of it. It's like you know four stories high
5:15 of people and it's a dark theater or whatever. And um we peek out from behind
5:19 the curtain. You see that? And then immediately it was me, you and Andrew.
5:24 And both of you started scrambling for drugs. You were both like, "Can we get a
5:27 pouch? Can someone go get can you run across the street real quick and get a
5:29 nicotine pouch?" And I was like, "What do you is that like did you not need
5:33 that till 2 seconds ago? What What is happening right now?" And then you both
5:36 popped in a pouch and then went on stage. It was incredible.
5:39 >> Yeah, that's a substitute. And I think then I was actually I would just swallow
5:43 the nicotine spit. You just stick it in there and you just swallow it. That's
5:46 like what the what the hard southerners do. Yeah. The but the lack of alcohol to
5:51 bring it back to that. Um that is a bit surprising that it's so widespread. But
5:55 I haven't been around like drunk people in so long. Have you?
6:00 No. But I just assumed it's cuz I'm like in dad mode. I didn't realize how, you
6:05 know, like I thought these are all bubbles, right? So I thought, oh, myself
6:08 and just kind of dad mode. What? Yeah, I'm not drinking out there. Then I
6:12 thought, well, my tech friends were all biohacking Brian Johnson, but we're in a
6:15 bubble. But then you see this, and this is the global inventory stock of these
6:19 alcohol companies. And it made me realize like maybe this behavior is not
6:23 just limited to my bubble that's taking place in the the broader community cuz
6:28 we're we're all too small of a group to affect, you know, the actual trend
6:30 lines. >> If I had to guess, it's going to be cyclical. If I had to guess, this will
6:34 make a comeback. >> Similar to black turtlenecks under
6:39 jackets. Well, look, Sean, >> bringing that one back single-handedly.
6:43 >> Uh, a turtleneck is a pedestal for the face, and I'm just trying to show off
6:47 what God gave me. >> Putting it on a pedestal. >> I like you said pedestal, which took
7:00 quack that you had there. Um, can I give you >> 10 degrees in New York City? Listen,
7:03 there's this article that I read about a turtleneck. said, "When a man wears a
7:07 turtleneck, he's asserting or he's advancing the situation, and that
7:15 >> He's advancing the situation. That's incredible. Wow. That's the best
7:20 branding since uh the actual situation from the Jersey Shore, which was which
7:25 was an oldtime nickname he gave himself. >> All right. So, a lot of people watch and
7:29 listen to this show because they want to hear us just tell them exactly what to
7:32 do when it comes to starting or growing a business. Now, a lot of people message
7:35 Sean and I and they say, "All right, I want to start something on the side. Is
7:39 this a good idea? Is that a good idea?" And again, what they're really just
7:43 saying is, "Just give me the ideas." Well, my friends, you're in luck. So, my
7:47 old company, The Hustle, they put together a hundred different side hustle
7:51 ideas, and they have appropriately called it the side hustle idea database.
7:56 It's a list of hundred pretty good ideas. Frankly, I went through them.
7:59 They're awesome. And it gives you how to start them, how to grow them, things
8:02 like that. gives you a little bit of inspiration. So, check it out. It's
8:06 called the side hustle idea database. It's in the description below. You'll
8:10 see the link. Click it. Check it out. Let me know in the comments what you
8:12 think. >> Let me give you a better one. All right. Voltra. Another trend. You might have
8:19 been early to as a former fitness influencer. So, yeah, I could tell you
8:23 all about that. I was I heard this for the first time when we were doing a
8:27 podcast with Hormosi. And you know, you do the podcast with Hormosi. go to his
8:31 office and we're talking and we talked for probably I don't know two two to
8:34 three hours something like that. So we talked about a lot of business stuff but
8:38 you know by the end I'm sort of out of asking him about business stuff and I
8:41 want to talk to him about other stuff. So I asked him I said what are you
8:43 nerding out about? What are you really like what are you really interested in
8:47 that's like letting your freak flag fly? Like what's what is your what's getting
8:51 you off here on the nerd level? And he goes and I forget what he called it. There's
8:56 a category for these. He's like, I I don't know what the term is, but it's
8:59 like resistance-based, blah blah blah. So, he tells me about this device, this
9:03 fitness piece of gym equipment. And the way he said it was like, some guy's
9:07 Instagram feed is sports, some guys Instagram feed is girls. My Instagram
9:11 feed is just niche gym equipment. So, he goes, "This thing is incredible." So, he
9:14 was telling me about this and I thought it was pretty fascinating. So, I filed
9:17 that away. I took a look at it, filed it away. So, I was watching this guy,
9:22 what's his name? Home Gym Reviews or something like that. >> Coop Mitchell. So, I want to talk about
9:26 Coupe. Yeah, he was talking about it. Um, somebody else was talking about it
9:30 and then in general like all of my training has been like the number of
9:33 times my trainer has said the word eccentric load. I'm just like, okay, I
9:37 don't know what I don't know why the eentric load is so important, but it's
9:40 definitely super important and and the two go together. So, what's let's
9:43 explain what it is. >> Yeah. So, basically, if you're looking
9:46 at it, it looks like it's the size of a red brick. Like for building a house, it
9:50 looks about that size. And so if you imagine you have a home gym or any gym
9:54 and you have a squat rack, imagine having this brick that you could attach
9:58 to various points of the squat rack and then you could attach a pulley or a
10:02 handle to it. And it's sort of like a portable cable machine except instead of
10:06 a cable machine, it's just this bricksiz pulley that I imagine is uh magnetically
10:12 creating resistance. So you could say make this 400 lb worth of weight and you
10:16 pull. But it's special because it's very precise I believe. >> Right. So there's a couple things there.
10:21 One is you you nailed it. It's a bow flex that's the size of like a shoe box
10:26 or even smaller than a shoe box which is pretty cool to put a cable machine
10:30 inside of such a small thing. So there's first point is small small footprint.
10:34 That's a big deal because most gym equipment is enormous and bulky. The
10:41 second thing is that you can change the the precision you're talking about
10:45 specifically is you can change where the resistance happens. So, let's say I go
10:50 pick up a pair of dumbbells. If it's 60 lb, then it's 60 lb on the way up of my
10:54 curl. It's 60 lb on the way down of my curl, right? There's no difference
10:58 there. But the way your muscles work is that the the the let's say the curling
11:02 up, which is the concentric part of the motion, and the eccentric, which is the
11:08 bringing it back down, you actually have totally different strengths. So your
11:11 eccentric can typically hold have like I don't know somewhere between 20 and 60%
11:18 more load than your concentric. But if you're picking a pair of dumbbells, well
11:21 you just got to pick the one you're sort of limited by your weaker part which is
11:25 your concentric load. So what's actually happening is that the more important
11:29 part of the movement, the eentric load, you're actually undertraining because
11:33 you're limited by what you could what you were able to curl. Now what this
11:36 machine does, which is kind of great, is that it lets you change the weight. So
11:40 you could say, "Hey, on the way up, give me 100 pounds, but on the way down, make
11:45 it 150." And so that precision of changing the the curve of where the
11:50 resistance happens in the movement, apparently, you get like incredible
11:54 progress and gains from this. Now, I don't know how real that is. Like I I
11:57 don't want to make a claim that I can't back up. I've never used this device,
12:01 but in theory, that makes total sense to me. And I think this is kind of a game
12:04 changer on multiple fronts. So that's it's a game changer in size cuz now you
12:09 can have a piece of equipment anywhere. >> Well, you still need like um like a you
12:14 still need um an anchor. So you still need like a squat rack.
12:16 >> But it could be a wall. It could be a tree. It could be like anything. It
12:18 doesn't need to be >> a tree. Yeah. As long as it could hold
12:21 like as long as it could hold like 300 or 200 lb worth of force.
12:25 >> Yeah. I think it goes up to I think the max resistance is like 200 I think on
12:28 their main main skew. >> Yeah. But if like you could use this in
12:31 lie of a bench press. So you could actually use as a bench press, but you
12:34 would need two of them, one on each side, >> right? So like, so the so the size is a
12:40 big deal, the potential gains you could get by changing the eentric concentric
12:44 loads. And then the third is the weight of it. So the bulk of the cost of gym
12:49 equipment is in the fact that you're shipping like 1,000 lb to someone's
12:53 house whenever you have to do this or,000bs to a gym. And now if you have
12:58 this thing the size of a brick, well, it's also the the weight of a brick
13:01 pretty much because the resistance is from uh the the cable pulley, not from
13:06 like actual weight in the box. So I think this is a big deal. And this might
13:09 like change the way that gyms are made, home gyms work. People
13:12 >> It actually comes with a battery. You charge it. So the way the technology
13:15 works is it has some type of battery and you have to but you do have to charge
13:18 it, I think, after every session. But it is incredible how you can get two or 300
13:22 I think it's 200 lb like you said. 200 lb of force from like a thing that's
13:25 this small. >> Well, I think I just sold myself on it on this on this pond. I I'm I'm very
13:32 curious about something like this. >> Did you go down this rabbit hole with uh
13:35 when you were making your home gym? >> I tried to go down the rabbit hole. It
13:39 was the wrong rabbit hole because the people who are interested in this,
13:42 they're too interested in the gym equipment. Whereas I'm interested in
13:47 like the MTV cribs or what's it like pit my pit my ride. It's like, hey, how do I
13:52 turn a kind of generic space into a cool space >> very quickly and what are like most bang
13:59 for my buck materials? I'm not trying to stuff it with equipment cuz the way I
14:03 train, like our training model is much more functional anyway. It's movement
14:08 based. It's not I don't want 15 bulky like static machines or racks that I
14:12 need to to work on. >> Yeah. Look, on one hand, I'm like, dude,
14:17 45 lbs is 45 lbs regardless of like how nice it is. And like I lift things up
14:20 and I put them down. That's like what the exercise is. But then on the other
14:23 side, there's like gadget nerds, of which I am one of those guys. And so,
14:27 uh, I'm in the category of people who just love browsing this gym stuff.
14:30 There's this guy named Coupe Mitchell that I met I think in 2020 because or 19
14:35 when I was building my home gym. And he's been reviewing stuff for years and
14:39 it's a really good channel and it was hilarious. Hermosi did this video with
14:42 him and this was the one time where I've seen Alex like can >> he was asking the questions like you
14:47 know he's always people are always asking him questions and it was really
14:50 cool and they were nerding out for about 30 minutes about this vulture thing.
14:54 >> Well you were you were my version of this cuz when I was building my home gym
14:59 I was like hey tell me what I need to do and you were like hey uh I was like what
15:02 do I need to do for the flooring >> horse stall mats? >> Yeah you were like hey get these horse
15:07 mats it's uh go to this barn website. Yeah. >> And get these things that horses like
15:11 poop on or stand on. And I was like, "What? Are you sure?" And I bought them.
15:15 They're amazing. They're great. >> Yeah. >> If they get out of what do you call like
15:19 alignment or >> I have a solution for that. >> Total pain for that. Oh, okay. I need
15:23 this. What's What's the solution? >> So, you have you ever looked inside of
15:26 like a garage or or a barn there when when when the when it comes together
15:30 where the 2x4s come together to form the um the angle of like the home, they
15:35 usually use this like piece of metal that has nails on it. You put those on
15:39 the bottom of the mat. So, you lift the mats up and you put these little things
15:42 and it nails them down. >> So, then they don't move. Is that the
15:44 idea? >> Imagine a thing that looks like a post-it note, but that post-it note is
15:49 made out of metal. And on top of the metal on top of the Post-it note part is
15:53 like tons of little like tacks, like little like uh little little uh nails.
15:58 And so, you just set it on you set it on the ground, you put the mats on top of
16:01 it, so it like comes like the seam comes together and then you just smack it down
16:03 really hard. >> I see. Okay, that makes sense. Yeah, I
16:05 needed that. Uh, >> I think it's called a uh uh you'll find
16:15 >> What's What's the third trend? >> Next trend. Physical AI. All right. So,
16:20 um I think you're going to hear this phrase a lot. And I think people when
16:24 they normally say it, they're saying it for robots. They're talking about
16:28 optimist. They're talking about uh the figure robot. They're talking about like
16:31 humano robots. I'm talking about something different. I'm talking about
16:36 almost like these gimmick devices where you can you just put AI in anything. So,
16:42 here's an example. Uh, have you ever seen uh ads for this thing called
16:46 Plaude? >> No. No. >> Could use a better name. P L A U D. I
16:52 bought this thing. I don't use it. Just this is like an anti-endorsement. I
16:54 don't use it. I think it was kind of junk. But this company has done hund00
17:00 million in revenue on this device. >> Oh, I have heard of this. I the the
17:04 promise of it is amazing. It's so and maybe it's better now. I maybe ordered
17:07 the early version and it was definitely like the Wish.com like type of
17:11 experience, but the premise of this is it looks like a business card almost or
17:14 this is what it did. It looked like a business card, but it basically is like
17:18 a physical meeting recorder. So, you could bring this to any meeting. You
17:22 could put this on the table and it'll record your conversation. And it's
17:24 something you could use for your own notes, just talking out loud at your
17:30 home office or um again if you're at a at a at a meeting with somebody. I think
17:33 the big use case actually that they say is student notes. So students bring this
17:37 to class lectures. And I think that's where they found like really fast growth
17:41 was, oh cool, if I go to class, this thing will record it. It'll transcribe
17:46 it. It's like what uh Fathom and some of these other like um meeting recorders
17:50 are doing for the business world, they were doing for classrooms. So this thing
17:54 kind of took off and I think there's a lot of things in this genre. So there's
17:59 teddy bears where um now your teddy bear comes with essentially like chat GBT
18:05 inside. So um I have a couple of these like for my kids. Again, still all in
18:09 the janky state. Nothing that I would be like this is good yet, but it's
18:13 definitely where the puck is going. >> Wasn't one of them incubated in your
18:16 buddy's uh >> Yeah, Fink has one that that that was being incubated there.
18:20 >> It had the best launch video I've ever seen. It was basically this like like
18:24 nerdy engineer type uh a guy like sitting there and the bear was saying
18:29 like farcon you're you're such a nerd you're always talking to a bunch of
18:33 robots and he's like this like nerdy guys like having a conversation with a
18:35 robot. It was hilarious. >> Yeah. Uh that's the idea. So um it's a
18:42 talking toy. I think uh Fatine is the guy who's called magical toys.com is the name of
18:49 theirs. They gave me like a really early prototype of this thing. like you could
18:52 literally it's like the bear on the front and then there was like a control
18:56 control board like dangling out the back like open wires. So you know it I got
18:59 like the earliest prototype so I don't know how good the newest one is but
19:03 again this is where the world is going where your toys are going to be able to
19:06 talk to kids to teach your kids. They're going to be interactive in a open world
19:10 way. So a lot of toys today are interactive but it's just hardcoded like
19:13 you push this button it's saying itsybitsy spider. You push this button
19:17 it's going to say hello. Well these toys can do anything. And so once this works,
19:21 it's gonna be kind of amazing. When my kids ride in our car, we have a Tesla
19:27 and Tesla has AI built in. And so I would say on half the rides, we just pop
19:30 her pop the AI open and we're like, "Hey, we're playing guess the animal
19:33 like come up with, you know, come up with animals. We're going to guess or uh
19:37 how does like you know, where does the earth come from, right? Like the
19:41 questions my son has and I'm like this is pretty hard to say like what's older,
19:45 the you know, the sun or the moon?" You know, things like that. And then she
19:48 explained where did who invented chocolate? We learned this the other
19:50 day. Do you know who invented chocolate by the way? >> No idea.
19:54 >> So this is kind of a crazy story. Thank you AI for telling me this story in the
19:57 car. >> So chocolate was uh initially they took the cocoa beans or it was like where
20:01 does chocolate come from? It's like oh these like cacao trees
20:04 >> like a nasty bean, right? It's like >> you think this nasty bean it's bitter.
20:07 But then if you roast it and you did whatever and then you add sugar, you add
20:10 butter, you add all this stuff, it becomes like milk chocolate that we all
20:14 like. So I was like whoa whoa whoa whoa. >> Yeah. Yeah,
20:16 >> who would have thought of that? Who would have took the nut and like got to
20:19 chocolate bar at the end? Like that sounds like an insane leap and AI was
20:24 like, "Well, here's the progression." Actually, first they took the the cacao
20:28 thing and then they put it just in a drink and it was a spicy kind of bitter
20:33 drink, more like a coffee, but they thought it had these like benefits and
20:36 so it was really popular for that. So then this doctor named like something
20:42 fry he believed in the the the medical benefits of the drink and then his he
20:46 had stopped being a doctor and his family had made a industrial plant to
20:50 make the drink but in order to increase demand he had this idea to experiment to
20:55 turn it into a bar like a snack bar and then the bar was too bitter. Like the
20:59 bitterness was okay in the drink form but it wasn't that good in the bar form.
21:02 So he's like we'll just add a [ __ ] ton of sugar to this and like see if we can
21:05 make this good. and he created the chocolate bar. >> That's pretty awesome. Um,
21:10 >> so physical AI, small little either, you know, oneoff devices, baking chips into
21:15 toys, chips into different different objects in the house. I think this is
21:18 going to become more and more popular. >> When you said physical AI, there's this
21:22 guy who uh just applied to join Hampton. It's called the handy.com. Have you seen
21:27 the handy? >> I think I've been to this website. Might
21:30 be saved, bookmarked. >> All right. Uh, I'm here. What am I What
21:35 am I looking at? Someone male interact. Oh, okay. All right. It was It was what
21:39 you were joking about. I thought that was like a >> Oh, yeah.
21:43 >> Get your mind out of the gutter. It's actually going to save lives. Nope. It's
21:46 not. >> Uh, no. I'm like, I'm being as clinical as one could be. I'm just going to read
21:50 you exactly what it says. The number one male interactive stroker. The top rated
21:54 male sex toy with perfect sync to adult videos on VR. >> Top rated how and where is what I want
22:00 to know. Let's get some source cited on that. But it says that it says they've
22:06 sold 200,000 of these things like on on the website. >> So this guy applies to Hampton and
22:10 you're like instant acceptance. Skip the application process. Come on in.
22:13 >> Well, we like do these weekly meetings where we discuss like who who who has
22:18 applied and like do we have a good group for them or not? And it's pretty funny
22:23 to be like yeah like uh the handy guy. Uh it's just kind of a Yeah, it's
22:28 definitely weird but it's pretty funny. >> There's a tab on their website. So, it's
22:34 like products, bundles, accessories, and then the last tab of the navigation menu
22:44 >> oh man, this is weird." Oh, I think I know what they're saying this is.
22:48 >> So, I don't think this is AI, but uh but maybe it could be someday.
22:51 >> What's the uh fourth? >> Okay, so my next trend is too many
22:57 podcasts, too little time. So, I don't know if you've seen, >> is that what a trend means?
23:04 >> This insane explosion in the number of highquality podcasts done by highquality
23:09 people. So, there's one that this guy did with his he the the podcast was um
23:15 from this guy Ti Morris. Ti Morris. It's a podcast called Relentless. So, just
23:19 shout out to to him. I don't know him, but uh I thought it caught my eye. I've
23:23 had so many people uh like reach out. There's a guy name Mark Brazil who I
23:26 like who's got a podcast and he was like does everyone know how much money can be
23:30 made in podcasting? Like all these people are like discovering this about
23:33 how strong this medium is for engagement. >> All right. So look at this podcast. Do
23:38 you see what I'm looking at? >> Yeah. >> With like get a Cybertruck tonight if
23:42 you can get a training run on these GPUs in 20. >> So this guy just describe what you're
23:45 seeing. >> Wow. He's actually recording a podcast outside on a huge building.
23:51 >> Yeah. And I think by the way it's not that hard. Like I think what he's doing
23:53 is you know like these apartment complexes in San Francisco where like
23:57 there's like a oh we have like a rooftop thing with like a shuffle board and like
24:01 a grill that nobody's going to use cuz it's like cold and but if you had
24:05 friends which you don't but if you did they could hang out here but they won't
24:10 cuz it's cold. Our version of that when Sean and I like started making like a
24:15 podcast it was let's just make our love seats bright red. >> Yeah, that's what I'm saying. We were
24:20 like cavemen in the podcasting game right now. So, this guy basically has
24:23 this like fireside chat literally by the fire. He's talking to some uh like a
24:28 technical staff member at XAI and the guy's sharing a bunch of like Elon
24:31 stories. So, you know what? >> I'm in. Guess what? Guess what? I'm
24:35 definitely in on that. And so, I'm listening to this and then the next
24:41 podcast I see is Joe Londale, who's a billionaire and, you know, probably
24:44 going to be like in the 10 richest people on earth at some point. like the
24:49 uh Joe Lansdale is talking to Joe Gabby, the guy who created Airbnb, and they're
24:52 in like a warehouse and it's well lit and they're talking about, you know,
24:55 Joe's time at the White House now cuz he's the chief design officer of
25:00 America. And I'm like, there's been this absolute explosion of podcasts. Um, and
25:07 this is in every industry. In the sports industry, this is the same thing. You
25:09 know, I grew up, the first podcast I ever listened to was Bill Simmons. I
25:13 used to listen to him back in 2007, but in college when he used to like have to
25:18 like download from the RSS feed and you know he had like Ronald Jenkins doing
25:23 his intro music type of deal and now sports podcasts are like well here's
25:27 LeBron has his own podcast called Mind the Game where he's sipping wine talking
25:31 to JJ Reick the future Lakers coach and they're just talking X's and O's and
25:35 then oh guess what um you know Max Kellerman he's not on TV anymore so so
25:38 Max Kellerman who goes from the number one TV show to now creates a podcast
25:42 with Rich Paul, LeBron's like longtime friend and sport like the number one
25:45 sports agent in basketball. They're going to they're going to talk shop. So
25:49 like the amount the the type of people who are getting into this industry, the
25:53 quality of production and sets like our friend Chris Williamson is doing like
25:58 IMAX 4K like you know your phone starts rumbling when an insight happens like I
26:01 don't know what he's doing with production value and then you have the
26:06 volume the overall volume that comes from this and I think it's because of
26:10 what you said podcasts went from niche and nerdy to now kind of cool cool
26:14 people do them. people think you can make a lot of money doing them, which I
26:18 think is not as true as people think. And I think there's this big problem,
26:21 which is what I call the shelf space problem, which is that a podcast is
26:26 great when you have listeners because it's like an hour in their ears and it's
26:32 habitual and it becomes a part of their day when they're commuting or they're at
26:35 work or they're doing chores or they're going for a run or the gym.
26:40 And I'm I'm glad we're that for some number of people, but the reality is
26:44 like you only have so many idle hours where you're going to listen to
26:48 podcasts. And so the number of podcast might 10x 50x and it has over the last,
26:53 you know, 10 years or so. But the number of podcast listeners and listening space
26:58 hasn't gone up in that same way. And I think that dam has broken. And now
27:01 what's happened is I think a couple things are going to happen. There's
27:05 going to be too many podcasts that are bad and boring. So that's happening
27:10 already. I think there's going to be a disillusionment when people realize how
27:13 much time, money, and effort goes into podcasting well and you don't get uh
27:17 fame and money back. And then I think the the the trick and what's happening
27:22 this the the the savior in this case is clips. And so I think podcasts are just
27:26 becoming clip farms. >> That's not where real engagement is. But
27:29 I think that's what that's what all these people are going to use as their
27:34 moral victory, which is uh oh look how many people liked that clip on Twitter
27:38 or Tik Tok and they're going to make a the pod is a clip farm and whether
27:42 anybody listens as a pod or not doesn't really matter. This is I mean TBPN I
27:46 think is doing the best at that. Um but but that's where I think all this is
27:48 going. >> I think that um what a lot of people Okay, and we we have I think made
27:55 mistakes uh on this path a lot as well. I think a lot of people think that just
27:59 because you see the video and um that's what gets your attention because it is
28:03 cooler. The reality is is that you just said that it's hours and ears and that a
28:08 lot of the shiny stuff really doesn't matter. The content just needs to be
28:11 good and it needs to be consistent and it has to have a unique perspective and
28:16 it is all in your ear. It's audio is what matters more than anything. And
28:19 like there's been times where we've talked about something like in minute 55
28:23 of this podcast and people on the streets will bring it up and they didn't
28:28 watch that on YouTube. They're listening to it while they're working out. If if
28:32 you're working out and in fact if you're listening to this on your ears, go to
28:35 Spotify right now and just like tell us what you're doing right now. I'm curious
28:39 in the comments. But um people aren't like watching these things. And
28:41 >> what do you mean people aren't watching these things? People are definitely
28:43 watching these things. >> No, they're not watching it near if you
28:46 look at the time spent. If you look at our, for example, if you want on our
28:50 megaphone and you look at time listened versus time to watch. So the average
28:54 engagement, the average time um on YouTube versus Spotify or some other
28:59 type of feed, it's significantly longer. >> So we'll put numbers around this. Our
29:03 average time on a YouTube video is about 15 minutes. >> Yeah. 15 minutes.
29:08 >> And on audio is about 40 to 45 minutes. >> Yeah. So, so you you need three views
29:14 for every one listener of audio if you wanted equivalent of uh time spent. Now,
29:19 even that's not exactly right because that one person who listened to 45
29:23 minutes has a deeper sense of connection and trust and and uh fandom than three
29:28 people who watched 15 minutes each. Now, here's the downside for anyone
29:34 listening. YouTube, it's very simple to grow. It's not like there's there's a
29:37 formula behind growing YouTube. It's still challenging but it's simple.
29:43 Growing an audio uh feed very hard. It's very hard. We have tried so long to do
29:46 it and we have hit so many plateaus multiple times. Growing audio is so
29:51 challenging but it is significantly more consistent in in listenership but it
29:57 does not grow fast in most cases. >> I think you're right. I don't think
30:01 you're right though that like the clips and stuff don't matter.
30:04 >> No, I didn't say that. I didn't say they don't matter. they matter significantly
30:08 less. >> Right. I guess what I'm saying is I think that the people who are who are
30:13 going to play that game are just actually playing a different game and
30:18 they can do very well in that game and have like all the results that they want
30:22 out of it. But it's very different. It is a It is like literally just like a
30:25 new game in the same way that I think if seven years ago you're making prestige
30:32 TV or movies and you looked at like Ryan Treyan and Mr. beast and you're like
30:37 what? He painted a circle and they have to these six strangers have to stay in
30:40 it and every 3 seconds something changes on the screen like that's not art. No,
30:44 that's not Breaking Bad. That's not Game of Thrones. You're not going to get
30:47 that. You know, you could say all those things. >> No, but I'm not criticizing it for that
30:50 reason. I'm criticizing it because of the the physics, the mechanics of it.
30:54 Often times the equation of influence involves time spent. And so the amount
30:58 of time you've spent with someone. So meaning the >> So I I wonder if it's gonna flip or I
31:04 wonder if volume is the other variable in this. And if you just said, okay, but
31:07 you're gonna see my face 30 times for every one time you're going to see that.
31:09 >> It could be. >> I wonder if that works. It might work.
31:11 You know, >> you just need to do it a lot. So like 60 seconds. Our podcast, you said the
31:17 average listen is 45 minutes and there's two a week. You just you're the volume
31:21 has to be the game. You better be Walmart. You better be turning that [ __ ]
31:23 out. >> Yeah. All right. I'll do two quick ones. Peptides. Peptides everywhere. I think
31:30 peptides are going to be here, there, everywhere. I think you're going to put
31:33 peptides in your nose. I think you're going to put them in your mouth. I think
31:35 they're going to put them in your butt. Peptides are everywhere. And it's a
31:40 classic like what the nerds are doing on the weekend, everybody's going to be
31:44 doing soon. Arguably, they already are because OMIC and the GLP ones, those are
31:50 peptides. But I'm just seeing people I would not expect, people I don't count
31:55 as biohackers who are very interested and jumping through a lot of hoops to
31:58 get peptides because you can't just get peptides easily and in a trustworthy
32:03 frictionless way. And so a great proxy for demand is like are you willing to,
32:07 you know, break the law and like do something sketchy for the thing you
32:11 want? Um well that's what's happening with peptides. I have, you know,
32:15 cousins, brother-in-law, like I have people who are not like dude just outing
32:19 him. God. >> Yeah. He's like, I got shoulder pain >> for Did he do BP57?
32:23 >> I don't know which one he's on, but yeah, he does probably doesn't even know
32:26 which one he's on. I got pain. This guy gave me this acronym and it my shoulder
32:30 feels better. I feel younger. >> I got friends sending me pictures of
32:34 themselves just absolutely ripped on the like, you know, the new version of the
32:37 Wolverine stack. >> Yeah. What's that what's that one called? I I for research we should find
32:41 out what that is and and start putting it in our bodies. >> Yeah. Exactly. So, I just think peptides
32:49 are this uh this thing that's got to be a big deal. And if you use proxy for
32:53 demand as people who are willing to jump through hoops, go through go to
32:58 untrusted sources. Imagine once somebody makes this easier to access, more easy
33:03 form factors, like get it to get it to gummies, get it to to pills, get it to
33:07 different form factors. As that happens over the next 10 years, I think peptides
33:11 will become a normal part of everyday life for people. In the same way you
33:15 take protein supplements and vitamins and um you know medicine when you're
33:19 sick, I think you're going to have enhancements through peptides.
33:23 >> I'm shocked that you're so interested in this and I think that you will never
33:26 take this, right? >> Sometimes I'm a user first and I become
33:29 an investor. Sometimes an investor first, I become a user. In this case,
33:33 I'm an investor. I'm I'm looking at it as an investor. I haven't made any
33:35 investments yet, but I'm hunting. Would you take it? >> I try not to be early to experimental
33:43 like health stuff. I think the riskreward doesn't really make a lot of
33:46 sense, but would I? Yeah, at a certain point I would. And at that, you know,
33:50 and I'm I'm happy to be late to certain parties. I would challenge you um about
33:55 investing. I do not think that these are particularly good businesses. I actually
33:58 don't take a lot of stuff anymore, but I used to like dabble with everything
34:02 because I I loved like trying new things and then I just found what works and I
34:05 just repeat that. But I don't run one of these businesses, but I am an investor
34:09 in one of them and I've like was a customer. People jump from one to one to
34:14 one. Like you you very easily can switch and there's not really a reason to stay
34:18 with someone for a very long time because in most cases they're just
34:22 selling the same thing at and and so anytime that you see there's a discount
34:26 or a doctor is going to be more liberal about what they prescribe or you could
34:30 just like tell someone give me this, you switch. It's it's very easy. And often
34:33 times, even though people say you have to take these take these things for
34:38 life, people don't. You just do it for 12 months, you feel good, and you're
34:40 like, I'm I'm going to bail. I'm going to get off of it. >> I'm glad that this is contrarian. I
34:43 thought that's going to be just too consensus. So, I appreciate that. Uh
34:46 that is not cons. >> Well, we've invested in one that's it's
34:50 killing it. Hone Health. They are killing it. But I guess what I'm saying
34:55 is I've seen like for example, uh we had more plates, more dates on uh Mer
34:59 Merrick Health, I think it was called. He has one of these companies and it
35:02 just like I've tried a bunch of them. They just seem like they're mostly
35:06 similar and I don't understand how you get locked in with someone for years.
35:09 Well, I think most people are not you. You're in the early adopter uh
35:14 experimentter cohort of people. Money is never made on you. Money is always made
35:18 on the uh early majority and late majority. So, >> you know how people like have you seen
35:22 those videos of people celebrating that they got their first customer? I'm
35:27 usually on the other end of that. I'm the one who's like just like here
35:30 I'll give you my money and uh I'll take a risk and then I'll bail it for 6
35:34 months. What's the sixth one? >> Okay. Sports betting and the
35:38 consequences. This is a trend that is in plain sight, but I think people
35:42 underestimate how big and how bad this is going to be. >> I'm shocked to hear you say that and
35:46 also I'm very happy to hear you say that. So basically I think there was an
35:50 article in the economist and they talked about the uh how sophisticated sports
35:55 betting companies are and basically the headline is whenever you make your first
36:00 bet they know to a high degree of certainty what type of customer you're
36:04 going to be and they manipulate you and the rest of their customers down to like
36:08 an amazing science in order to get the most amount of dollars from you.
36:12 >> Right? One gambling consultant told the economist, "By the time a customer
36:16 places his first bet, first bet on the sports book, they are 80 to 90% certain
36:21 they know the lifetime value. They know how big of a sucker you are from the
36:26 first bet. And they mathematically monitor players, create new risk score
36:30 every 6 to 8 hours. Basically, they're trying to figure out is this customer
36:34 going to become profitable on us? How do we monitor keep the keep the profitable
36:37 players out, keep the unprofitable players in?" And okay, so what what else
36:41 is interesting about this? There was new data about um like Kali and Poly Market.
36:47 >> How are those two different by the way? >> So they're both in the same category,
36:51 prediction markets, right? prediction market basically just says you're able
36:55 to wager what you think the outcome of an event is and they're markets meaning
37:00 unlike a sports book where there's a house that defines the rules of sorry
37:06 defines the odds the way a market works is the question is posed and then you
37:10 take the yes or no side and based on the volume of dollars that go into the yes
37:14 or no side you're basically competing in a free market against each other and
37:17 there's been some incredible things that have come from this right like um it is
37:22 more accurate than the news, right? So, a lot of people go to the news to try to
37:25 get a sense of what's happening or what's going to happen, but the news is
37:31 far less accurate than just going and looking at with skin in the game what
37:36 the poly market says of what is actually going to happen. Um, what are the odds
37:41 say is going to happen and the odds change in real time as new information
37:45 goes in. And so, you here you know, let's just take the incentives as an
37:49 example. the incentives of a journalist who's writing for the New York Times or
37:52 the Wall Street Journal, these extremely prestigious, you know, supposed truth
37:58 seeeking uh uh platforms. Well, their incentive is how do I get as many clicks
38:04 as possible on this headline? Um how do I make sure that nobody unsubscribes
38:07 because I said something that they don't like, right? Uh that they canceled their
38:10 their subscription because I told them an unpopular truth. And so those that
38:15 you know fundamentally my incentive loop is that now you take the incentives of
38:18 poly market. Somebody who's betting yes is saying I'm gonna I'm gonna win or
38:24 lose money by being right or wrong. And so you know and the high the more
38:27 conviction I have the more money I would place on this wager. And the conviction
38:31 if I'm taking if I have conviction based on you know gut and superstition over
38:35 time I'm going to lose all my money. I'll be out of the market. But if I have
38:38 conviction based off of research or insider information or you know um uh
38:43 in-depth analysis, I will make money and I'll have more capital to bring to this
38:47 market over time. So that's what that's the category. Okay. Now what's
38:51 interesting, they're now doing over two billion a week in just sports betting
38:53 volume. >> Poly market >> the common both of them um both of them
38:57 together. >> And what percentage of the revenue do they get? They're taking I don't know
39:03 it's less than like a it's like a point point whatever percent 0.12 I don't know
39:07 what it is some very very small vig that they take um on on the transaction
39:11 >> and how much are they doing in a week >> two billion on just sports and so like
39:15 what's happened is that these things started where they were doing you know
39:19 like who's going to win the election and are we going to end up in a war in
39:22 Ukraine and that those were very likeformational things in order to inform like you know
39:29 it's in some ways it's a it's a signal or a hedge against uh you know your
39:32 maybe a stock market performance or whatnot. But sports betting is just so
39:37 popular that like as a percentage share of action, it's just taking over these
39:40 platforms and they're essentially becoming sports betting apps that are
39:45 just like in this like loophole of regulation where you can't make you
39:50 can't do sports betting, but you can do prediction markets about sports.
39:53 >> And this is uh legal in all 50 states. >> Yeah. Um or sorry, I I I shouldn't say
39:57 that. I'm not I'm not as well versed in it. Kelshi based on the way they're
40:01 regulated cuz like prediction markets are regulated by like commodities or
40:04 something like that, the commodities market. And so they are and that's why
40:08 if you open up the Robin Hood app, you could just bet on any game right now and
40:13 it's powered by Khi. Uh and I think they're going to switch off off of KHI
40:17 at some point cuz why are they giving KI so much volume? >> If you were a politician and you could
40:22 if you were the dictator, uh what would you do? >> Oh god, that's a lot of power. What
40:26 would I do? Uh yeah, >> I'd have people feeding me grapes and
40:31 I'd have about this. Um you know, this is pretty dangerous. Like there's like
40:34 my, you know, I'm coaching this high school basketball team and like, you
40:37 know, it's interesting cuz you're around teenagers. You get to see like what are
40:40 they interested in? What do they do? >> Do they talk about it all the time?
40:43 >> They're talking about it all the time. They're like overunders.
40:45 >> That's crazy. >> You know, they don't just watch the
40:47 games. They bet on the games. They're probably betting very small amounts
40:50 maybe on their dad's account. I don't even know how they're doing it exactly,
40:53 but it's definitely something that they love to do and that they're doing a lot
40:57 of. And the the problem is it's one sports betting and I take it this take
41:01 this as somebody who's wasted far too much of their life gambling whether it's
41:05 poker or sports betting. Sports betting is one of these things that it's dumb to
41:10 do but it's easy to look smart. So like it's a dumb activity to do but if you
41:16 cherry pick a good bet you can share it, you can tell people about it and you get
41:20 to look smart for a moment. And like the real gains in life come from things that
41:24 look dumb to do but are actually smart to do. Those are like that's where all
41:29 the real alpha of life is. And of course there's the obvious things, things that
41:32 are smart to do that look smart to do. And you should do those too. That's like
41:35 you know the sort of highly competitive things that that people do like going to
41:38 college or you know like trying to get a good job right like sounds smart is
41:42 smart and then you know and so I think that the problem is sports betting falls
41:45 in this one. It's obviously super addictive. Obviously, there's going to
41:48 be a lot of people who, you know, lose a lot of money, waste a lot of time, get
41:53 addicted to this stuff. There's NBA players that get death threats
41:58 constantly because like some guys got a $200 parlay on them getting 11 rebounds
42:04 instead of nine. And um you know, in his DM, every day he goes home and from
42:07 basketball, if you talk to any player, like their DMs are just filled with
42:11 angry voice notes and death threats from a guy who needed them to get an extra
42:14 rebound for their parlay. And you could do this for college sports, too.
42:17 >> You could do this for college, which is toxic now at the younger level, right?
42:22 Um it's crazy. Like I put this in my 52 Tuesday, like some guy's rooting for
42:25 World War II because he's going to win $390 on Poly Market, right? Like I think
42:31 it's um so I I tend to I would say I'm a very moderate person politically. Um I I
42:37 disagree and agree with people on both sides. And also uh I would say I'm very
42:40 pro- capitalist. And this is one of the free time, one of the few times where
42:44 I'm like, "No, I'm I'm definitely not in favor of the market just doing what it
42:47 wants to do." In this case, I definitely think that regulation would be nice. I
42:50 don't exactly I don't I'm an idiot. I don't know how it needs to be done, but
42:54 this seems very dangerous. I think what will happen is I think that like a
42:59 college or professional sports uh sports player is going to uh be murdered or uh
43:04 there's going to be like something crazy that happens in politics where the
43:09 person made the decision just to get the payout on the bet. >> Yeah. And there's there's already been
43:13 players who have lost their whether it's college scholarships. There's NBA
43:17 players that are getting fined or banned from the league permanently um because
43:23 they they told their homies, "Hey, I'm out today. It's not reported yet." Or
43:27 worse, right? There's been guys who like owe people money in the mafia from their
43:31 poker losses in the poker games. They're like, "Hey, to make it back, I'm gonna
43:34 pull a hammy in the first quarter. Just bet my under. You'll make it back." But
43:37 it's too obvious cuz somebody suddenly slams $50,000 on this obscure player's
43:44 under and then you know the NBA bans that player, they lose their $30 million
43:46 contract. >> I remember when we were younger, there was this one player. He was like uh the
43:52 superstar quarterback for I think Ohio. What's his last name? Like Owens. Uh and
43:57 he got in trouble for um getting free tattoos from a tattoo shop and in in
44:02 exchange for like uh some jerseys or something like that and he was banned.
44:04 >> Oh yeah. Yeah. He was like signing. He like signed a jersey.
44:09 >> I think he got kicked out or he It was huge. It was a huge deal. It was
44:13 national news and he signed jerseys and gave it to a I think a tattoo parlor in
44:17 exchange for free tattoos. Do you remember that? >> Known as Tattoo Gate. Uh yeah, it was it
44:22 was Terrell Prior. >> This was years ago and this was a huge
44:24 deal. And I think he was like the hottest guy going and he did this and
44:27 that was like the biggest scandal I remember in years. It's going to get way
44:31 worse. It's going to get way worse. Dude, this is where they're what they're
44:33 doing instead of drinking alcohol. I'd rather people drink, by the way, than
44:37 than do this [ __ ] >> Yeah. Gambling instead. Yeah. So, those
44:41 are my trends. Give me a favorite and a least favorite. >> I think alcohol is going to get popular
44:46 again next generation. I think it's going to I think that whatever the
44:48 generation >> generation >> Yeah. Whatever your parents do, you're
44:52 going to do the opposite. Um I think sports betting in the next 5 years is
44:56 going to be incredibly heavily regulated and companies like Poly Market and Khi
45:01 are going to crumble. >> Wow. Big big predictions there.
8:12 think. >> Let me give you a better one. All right. Voltra. Another trend. You might have
8:19 been early to as a former fitness influencer. So, yeah, I could tell you
8:23 all about that. I was I heard this for the first time when we were doing a
8:27 podcast with Hormosi. And you know, you do the podcast with Hormosi. go to his
8:31 office and we're talking and we talked for probably I don't know two two to
8:34 three hours something like that. So we talked about a lot of business stuff but
8:38 you know by the end I'm sort of out of asking him about business stuff and I
8:41 want to talk to him about other stuff. So I asked him I said what are you
8:43 nerding out about? What are you really like what are you really interested in
8:47 that's like letting your freak flag fly? Like what's what is your what's getting
8:51 you off here on the nerd level? And he goes and I forget what he called it. There's
8:56 a category for these. He's like, I I don't know what the term is, but it's
8:59 like resistance-based, blah blah blah. So, he tells me about this device, this
9:03 fitness piece of gym equipment. And the way he said it was like, some guy's
9:07 Instagram feed is sports, some guys Instagram feed is girls. My Instagram
9:11 feed is just niche gym equipment. So, he goes, "This thing is incredible." So, he
9:14 was telling me about this and I thought it was pretty fascinating. So, I filed
9:17 that away. I took a look at it, filed it away. So, I was watching this guy,
9:22 what's his name? Home Gym Reviews or something like that. >> Coop Mitchell. So, I want to talk about
9:26 Coupe. Yeah, he was talking about it. Um, somebody else was talking about it
9:30 and then in general like all of my training has been like the number of
9:33 times my trainer has said the word eccentric load. I'm just like, okay, I
9:37 don't know what I don't know why the eentric load is so important, but it's
9:40 definitely super important and and the two go together. So, what's let's
9:43 explain what it is. >> Yeah. So, basically, if you're looking
9:46 at it, it looks like it's the size of a red brick. Like for building a house, it
9:50 looks about that size. And so if you imagine you have a home gym or any gym
9:54 and you have a squat rack, imagine having this brick that you could attach
9:58 to various points of the squat rack and then you could attach a pulley or a
10:02 handle to it. And it's sort of like a portable cable machine except instead of
10:06 a cable machine, it's just this bricksiz pulley that I imagine is uh magnetically
10:12 creating resistance. So you could say make this 400 lb worth of weight and you
10:16 pull. But it's special because it's very precise I believe. >> Right. So there's a couple things there.
10:21 One is you you nailed it. It's a bow flex that's the size of like a shoe box
10:26 or even smaller than a shoe box which is pretty cool to put a cable machine
10:30 inside of such a small thing. So there's first point is small small footprint.
10:34 That's a big deal because most gym equipment is enormous and bulky. The
10:41 second thing is that you can change the the precision you're talking about
10:45 specifically is you can change where the resistance happens. So, let's say I go
10:50 pick up a pair of dumbbells. If it's 60 lb, then it's 60 lb on the way up of my
10:54 curl. It's 60 lb on the way down of my curl, right? There's no difference
10:58 there. But the way your muscles work is that the the the let's say the curling
11:02 up, which is the concentric part of the motion, and the eccentric, which is the
11:08 bringing it back down, you actually have totally different strengths. So your
11:11 eccentric can typically hold have like I don't know somewhere between 20 and 60%
11:18 more load than your concentric. But if you're picking a pair of dumbbells, well
11:21 you just got to pick the one you're sort of limited by your weaker part which is
11:25 your concentric load. So what's actually happening is that the more important
11:29 part of the movement, the eentric load, you're actually undertraining because
11:33 you're limited by what you could what you were able to curl. Now what this
11:36 machine does, which is kind of great, is that it lets you change the weight. So
11:40 you could say, "Hey, on the way up, give me 100 pounds, but on the way down, make
11:45 it 150." And so that precision of changing the the curve of where the
11:50 resistance happens in the movement, apparently, you get like incredible
11:54 progress and gains from this. Now, I don't know how real that is. Like I I
11:57 don't want to make a claim that I can't back up. I've never used this device,
12:01 but in theory, that makes total sense to me. And I think this is kind of a game
12:04 changer on multiple fronts. So that's it's a game changer in size cuz now you
12:09 can have a piece of equipment anywhere. >> Well, you still need like um like a you
12:14 still need um an anchor. So you still need like a squat rack.
12:16 >> But it could be a wall. It could be a tree. It could be like anything. It
12:18 doesn't need to be >> a tree. Yeah. As long as it could hold
12:21 like as long as it could hold like 300 or 200 lb worth of force.
12:25 >> Yeah. I think it goes up to I think the max resistance is like 200 I think on
12:28 their main main skew. >> Yeah. But if like you could use this in
12:31 lie of a bench press. So you could actually use as a bench press, but you
12:34 would need two of them, one on each side, >> right? So like, so the so the size is a
12:40 big deal, the potential gains you could get by changing the eentric concentric
12:44 loads. And then the third is the weight of it. So the bulk of the cost of gym
12:49 equipment is in the fact that you're shipping like 1,000 lb to someone's
12:53 house whenever you have to do this or,000bs to a gym. And now if you have
12:58 this thing the size of a brick, well, it's also the the weight of a brick
13:01 pretty much because the resistance is from uh the the cable pulley, not from
13:06 like actual weight in the box. So I think this is a big deal. And this might
13:09 like change the way that gyms are made, home gyms work. People
13:12 >> It actually comes with a battery. You charge it. So the way the technology
13:15 works is it has some type of battery and you have to but you do have to charge
13:18 it, I think, after every session. But it is incredible how you can get two or 300
13:22 I think it's 200 lb like you said. 200 lb of force from like a thing that's
13:25 this small. >> Well, I think I just sold myself on it on this on this pond. I I'm I'm very
13:32 curious about something like this. >> Did you go down this rabbit hole with uh
13:35 when you were making your home gym? >> I tried to go down the rabbit hole. It
13:39 was the wrong rabbit hole because the people who are interested in this,
13:42 they're too interested in the gym equipment. Whereas I'm interested in
13:47 like the MTV cribs or what's it like pit my pit my ride. It's like, hey, how do I
13:52 turn a kind of generic space into a cool space >> very quickly and what are like most bang
13:59 for my buck materials? I'm not trying to stuff it with equipment cuz the way I
14:03 train, like our training model is much more functional anyway. It's movement
14:08 based. It's not I don't want 15 bulky like static machines or racks that I
14:12 need to to work on. >> Yeah. Look, on one hand, I'm like, dude,
14:17 45 lbs is 45 lbs regardless of like how nice it is. And like I lift things up
14:20 and I put them down. That's like what the exercise is. But then on the other
14:23 side, there's like gadget nerds, of which I am one of those guys. And so,
14:27 uh, I'm in the category of people who just love browsing this gym stuff.
14:30 There's this guy named Coupe Mitchell that I met I think in 2020 because or 19
14:35 when I was building my home gym. And he's been reviewing stuff for years and
14:39 it's a really good channel and it was hilarious. Hermosi did this video with
14:42 him and this was the one time where I've seen Alex like can >> he was asking the questions like you
14:47 know he's always people are always asking him questions and it was really
14:50 cool and they were nerding out for about 30 minutes about this vulture thing.
14:54 >> Well you were you were my version of this cuz when I was building my home gym
14:59 I was like hey tell me what I need to do and you were like hey uh I was like what
15:02 do I need to do for the flooring >> horse stall mats? >> Yeah you were like hey get these horse
15:07 mats it's uh go to this barn website. Yeah. >> And get these things that horses like
15:11 poop on or stand on. And I was like, "What? Are you sure?" And I bought them.
15:15 They're amazing. They're great. >> Yeah. >> If they get out of what do you call like
15:19 alignment or >> I have a solution for that. >> Total pain for that. Oh, okay. I need
15:23 this. What's What's the solution? >> So, you have you ever looked inside of
15:26 like a garage or or a barn there when when when the when it comes together
15:30 where the 2x4s come together to form the um the angle of like the home, they
15:35 usually use this like piece of metal that has nails on it. You put those on
15:39 the bottom of the mat. So, you lift the mats up and you put these little things
15:42 and it nails them down. >> So, then they don't move. Is that the
15:44 idea? >> Imagine a thing that looks like a post-it note, but that post-it note is
15:49 made out of metal. And on top of the metal on top of the Post-it note part is
15:53 like tons of little like tacks, like little like uh little little uh nails.
15:58 And so, you just set it on you set it on the ground, you put the mats on top of
16:01 it, so it like comes like the seam comes together and then you just smack it down
16:03 really hard. >> I see. Okay, that makes sense. Yeah, I
16:05 needed that. Uh, >> I think it's called a uh uh you'll find
16:15 >> What's What's the third trend? >> Next trend. Physical AI. All right. So,
16:20 um I think you're going to hear this phrase a lot. And I think people when
16:24 they normally say it, they're saying it for robots. They're talking about
16:28 optimist. They're talking about uh the figure robot. They're talking about like
16:31 humano robots. I'm talking about something different. I'm talking about
16:36 almost like these gimmick devices where you can you just put AI in anything. So,
16:42 here's an example. Uh, have you ever seen uh ads for this thing called
16:46 Plaude? >> No. No. >> Could use a better name. P L A U D. I
16:52 bought this thing. I don't use it. Just this is like an anti-endorsement. I
16:54 don't use it. I think it was kind of junk. But this company has done hund00
17:00 million in revenue on this device. >> Oh, I have heard of this. I the the
17:04 promise of it is amazing. It's so and maybe it's better now. I maybe ordered
17:07 the early version and it was definitely like the Wish.com like type of
17:11 experience, but the premise of this is it looks like a business card almost or
17:14 this is what it did. It looked like a business card, but it basically is like
17:18 a physical meeting recorder. So, you could bring this to any meeting. You
17:22 could put this on the table and it'll record your conversation. And it's
17:24 something you could use for your own notes, just talking out loud at your
17:30 home office or um again if you're at a at a at a meeting with somebody. I think
17:33 the big use case actually that they say is student notes. So students bring this
17:37 to class lectures. And I think that's where they found like really fast growth
17:41 was, oh cool, if I go to class, this thing will record it. It'll transcribe
17:46 it. It's like what uh Fathom and some of these other like um meeting recorders
17:50 are doing for the business world, they were doing for classrooms. So this thing
17:54 kind of took off and I think there's a lot of things in this genre. So there's
17:59 teddy bears where um now your teddy bear comes with essentially like chat GBT
18:05 inside. So um I have a couple of these like for my kids. Again, still all in
18:09 the janky state. Nothing that I would be like this is good yet, but it's
18:13 definitely where the puck is going. >> Wasn't one of them incubated in your
18:16 buddy's uh >> Yeah, Fink has one that that that was being incubated there.
18:20 >> It had the best launch video I've ever seen. It was basically this like like
18:24 nerdy engineer type uh a guy like sitting there and the bear was saying
18:29 like farcon you're you're such a nerd you're always talking to a bunch of
18:33 robots and he's like this like nerdy guys like having a conversation with a
18:35 robot. It was hilarious. >> Yeah. Uh that's the idea. So um it's a
18:42 talking toy. I think uh Fatine is the guy who's called magical toys.com is the name of
18:49 theirs. They gave me like a really early prototype of this thing. like you could
18:52 literally it's like the bear on the front and then there was like a control
18:56 control board like dangling out the back like open wires. So you know it I got
18:59 like the earliest prototype so I don't know how good the newest one is but
19:03 again this is where the world is going where your toys are going to be able to
19:06 talk to kids to teach your kids. They're going to be interactive in a open world
19:10 way. So a lot of toys today are interactive but it's just hardcoded like
19:13 you push this button it's saying itsybitsy spider. You push this button
19:17 it's going to say hello. Well these toys can do anything. And so once this works,
19:21 it's gonna be kind of amazing. When my kids ride in our car, we have a Tesla
19:27 and Tesla has AI built in. And so I would say on half the rides, we just pop
19:30 her pop the AI open and we're like, "Hey, we're playing guess the animal
19:33 like come up with, you know, come up with animals. We're going to guess or uh
19:37 how does like you know, where does the earth come from, right? Like the
19:41 questions my son has and I'm like this is pretty hard to say like what's older,
19:45 the you know, the sun or the moon?" You know, things like that. And then she
19:48 explained where did who invented chocolate? We learned this the other
19:50 day. Do you know who invented chocolate by the way? >> No idea.
19:54 >> So this is kind of a crazy story. Thank you AI for telling me this story in the
19:57 car. >> So chocolate was uh initially they took the cocoa beans or it was like where
20:01 does chocolate come from? It's like oh these like cacao trees
20:04 >> like a nasty bean, right? It's like >> you think this nasty bean it's bitter.
20:07 But then if you roast it and you did whatever and then you add sugar, you add
20:10 butter, you add all this stuff, it becomes like milk chocolate that we all
20:14 like. So I was like whoa whoa whoa whoa. >> Yeah. Yeah,
20:16 >> who would have thought of that? Who would have took the nut and like got to
20:19 chocolate bar at the end? Like that sounds like an insane leap and AI was
20:24 like, "Well, here's the progression." Actually, first they took the the cacao
20:28 thing and then they put it just in a drink and it was a spicy kind of bitter
20:33 drink, more like a coffee, but they thought it had these like benefits and
20:36 so it was really popular for that. So then this doctor named like something
20:42 fry he believed in the the the medical benefits of the drink and then his he
20:46 had stopped being a doctor and his family had made a industrial plant to
20:50 make the drink but in order to increase demand he had this idea to experiment to
20:55 turn it into a bar like a snack bar and then the bar was too bitter. Like the
20:59 bitterness was okay in the drink form but it wasn't that good in the bar form.
21:02 So he's like we'll just add a [ __ ] ton of sugar to this and like see if we can
21:05 make this good. and he created the chocolate bar. >> That's pretty awesome. Um,
21:10 >> so physical AI, small little either, you know, oneoff devices, baking chips into
21:15 toys, chips into different different objects in the house. I think this is
21:18 going to become more and more popular. >> When you said physical AI, there's this
21:22 guy who uh just applied to join Hampton. It's called the handy.com. Have you seen
21:27 the handy? >> I think I've been to this website. Might
21:30 be saved, bookmarked. >> All right. Uh, I'm here. What am I What
21:35 am I looking at? Someone male interact. Oh, okay. All right. It was It was what
21:39 you were joking about. I thought that was like a >> Oh, yeah.
21:43 >> Get your mind out of the gutter. It's actually going to save lives. Nope. It's
21:46 not. >> Uh, no. I'm like, I'm being as clinical as one could be. I'm just going to read
21:50 you exactly what it says. The number one male interactive stroker. The top rated
21:54 male sex toy with perfect sync to adult videos on VR. >> Top rated how and where is what I want
22:00 to know. Let's get some source cited on that. But it says that it says they've
22:06 sold 200,000 of these things like on on the website. >> So this guy applies to Hampton and
22:10 you're like instant acceptance. Skip the application process. Come on in.
22:13 >> Well, we like do these weekly meetings where we discuss like who who who has
22:18 applied and like do we have a good group for them or not? And it's pretty funny
22:23 to be like yeah like uh the handy guy. Uh it's just kind of a Yeah, it's
22:28 definitely weird but it's pretty funny. >> There's a tab on their website. So, it's
22:34 like products, bundles, accessories, and then the last tab of the navigation menu
22:44 >> oh man, this is weird." Oh, I think I know what they're saying this is.
22:48 >> So, I don't think this is AI, but uh but maybe it could be someday.
22:51 >> What's the uh fourth? >> Okay, so my next trend is too many
22:57 podcasts, too little time. So, I don't know if you've seen, >> is that what a trend means?
23:04 >> This insane explosion in the number of highquality podcasts done by highquality
23:09 people. So, there's one that this guy did with his he the the podcast was um
23:15 from this guy Ti Morris. Ti Morris. It's a podcast called Relentless. So, just
23:19 shout out to to him. I don't know him, but uh I thought it caught my eye. I've
23:23 had so many people uh like reach out. There's a guy name Mark Brazil who I
23:26 like who's got a podcast and he was like does everyone know how much money can be
23:30 made in podcasting? Like all these people are like discovering this about
23:33 how strong this medium is for engagement. >> All right. So look at this podcast. Do
23:38 you see what I'm looking at? >> Yeah. >> With like get a Cybertruck tonight if
23:42 you can get a training run on these GPUs in 20. >> So this guy just describe what you're
23:45 seeing. >> Wow. He's actually recording a podcast outside on a huge building.
23:51 >> Yeah. And I think by the way it's not that hard. Like I think what he's doing
23:53 is you know like these apartment complexes in San Francisco where like
23:57 there's like a oh we have like a rooftop thing with like a shuffle board and like
24:01 a grill that nobody's going to use cuz it's like cold and but if you had
24:05 friends which you don't but if you did they could hang out here but they won't
24:10 cuz it's cold. Our version of that when Sean and I like started making like a
24:15 podcast it was let's just make our love seats bright red. >> Yeah, that's what I'm saying. We were
24:20 like cavemen in the podcasting game right now. So, this guy basically has
24:23 this like fireside chat literally by the fire. He's talking to some uh like a
24:28 technical staff member at XAI and the guy's sharing a bunch of like Elon
24:31 stories. So, you know what? >> I'm in. Guess what? Guess what? I'm
24:35 definitely in on that. And so, I'm listening to this and then the next
24:41 podcast I see is Joe Londale, who's a billionaire and, you know, probably
24:44 going to be like in the 10 richest people on earth at some point. like the
24:49 uh Joe Lansdale is talking to Joe Gabby, the guy who created Airbnb, and they're
24:52 in like a warehouse and it's well lit and they're talking about, you know,
24:55 Joe's time at the White House now cuz he's the chief design officer of
25:00 America. And I'm like, there's been this absolute explosion of podcasts. Um, and
25:07 this is in every industry. In the sports industry, this is the same thing. You
25:09 know, I grew up, the first podcast I ever listened to was Bill Simmons. I
25:13 used to listen to him back in 2007, but in college when he used to like have to
25:18 like download from the RSS feed and you know he had like Ronald Jenkins doing
25:23 his intro music type of deal and now sports podcasts are like well here's
25:27 LeBron has his own podcast called Mind the Game where he's sipping wine talking
25:31 to JJ Reick the future Lakers coach and they're just talking X's and O's and
25:35 then oh guess what um you know Max Kellerman he's not on TV anymore so so
25:38 Max Kellerman who goes from the number one TV show to now creates a podcast
25:42 with Rich Paul, LeBron's like longtime friend and sport like the number one
25:45 sports agent in basketball. They're going to they're going to talk shop. So
25:49 like the amount the the type of people who are getting into this industry, the
25:53 quality of production and sets like our friend Chris Williamson is doing like
25:58 IMAX 4K like you know your phone starts rumbling when an insight happens like I
26:01 don't know what he's doing with production value and then you have the
26:06 volume the overall volume that comes from this and I think it's because of
26:10 what you said podcasts went from niche and nerdy to now kind of cool cool
26:14 people do them. people think you can make a lot of money doing them, which I
26:18 think is not as true as people think. And I think there's this big problem,
26:21 which is what I call the shelf space problem, which is that a podcast is
26:26 great when you have listeners because it's like an hour in their ears and it's
26:32 habitual and it becomes a part of their day when they're commuting or they're at
26:35 work or they're doing chores or they're going for a run or the gym.
26:40 And I'm I'm glad we're that for some number of people, but the reality is
26:44 like you only have so many idle hours where you're going to listen to
26:48 podcasts. And so the number of podcast might 10x 50x and it has over the last,
26:53 you know, 10 years or so. But the number of podcast listeners and listening space
26:58 hasn't gone up in that same way. And I think that dam has broken. And now
27:01 what's happened is I think a couple things are going to happen. There's
27:05 going to be too many podcasts that are bad and boring. So that's happening
27:10 already. I think there's going to be a disillusionment when people realize how
27:13 much time, money, and effort goes into podcasting well and you don't get uh
27:17 fame and money back. And then I think the the the trick and what's happening
27:22 this the the the savior in this case is clips. And so I think podcasts are just
27:26 becoming clip farms. >> That's not where real engagement is. But
27:29 I think that's what that's what all these people are going to use as their
27:34 moral victory, which is uh oh look how many people liked that clip on Twitter
27:38 or Tik Tok and they're going to make a the pod is a clip farm and whether
27:42 anybody listens as a pod or not doesn't really matter. This is I mean TBPN I
27:46 think is doing the best at that. Um but but that's where I think all this is
27:48 going. >> I think that um what a lot of people Okay, and we we have I think made
27:55 mistakes uh on this path a lot as well. I think a lot of people think that just
27:59 because you see the video and um that's what gets your attention because it is
28:03 cooler. The reality is is that you just said that it's hours and ears and that a
28:08 lot of the shiny stuff really doesn't matter. The content just needs to be
28:11 good and it needs to be consistent and it has to have a unique perspective and
28:16 it is all in your ear. It's audio is what matters more than anything. And
28:19 like there's been times where we've talked about something like in minute 55
28:23 of this podcast and people on the streets will bring it up and they didn't
28:28 watch that on YouTube. They're listening to it while they're working out. If if
28:32 you're working out and in fact if you're listening to this on your ears, go to
28:35 Spotify right now and just like tell us what you're doing right now. I'm curious
28:39 in the comments. But um people aren't like watching these things. And
28:41 >> what do you mean people aren't watching these things? People are definitely
28:43 watching these things. >> No, they're not watching it near if you
28:46 look at the time spent. If you look at our, for example, if you want on our
28:50 megaphone and you look at time listened versus time to watch. So the average
28:54 engagement, the average time um on YouTube versus Spotify or some other
28:59 type of feed, it's significantly longer. >> So we'll put numbers around this. Our
29:03 average time on a YouTube video is about 15 minutes. >> Yeah. 15 minutes.
29:08 >> And on audio is about 40 to 45 minutes. >> Yeah. So, so you you need three views
29:14 for every one listener of audio if you wanted equivalent of uh time spent. Now,
29:19 even that's not exactly right because that one person who listened to 45
29:23 minutes has a deeper sense of connection and trust and and uh fandom than three
29:28 people who watched 15 minutes each. Now, here's the downside for anyone
29:34 listening. YouTube, it's very simple to grow. It's not like there's there's a
29:37 formula behind growing YouTube. It's still challenging but it's simple.
29:43 Growing an audio uh feed very hard. It's very hard. We have tried so long to do
29:46 it and we have hit so many plateaus multiple times. Growing audio is so
29:51 challenging but it is significantly more consistent in in listenership but it
29:57 does not grow fast in most cases. >> I think you're right. I don't think
30:01 you're right though that like the clips and stuff don't matter.
30:04 >> No, I didn't say that. I didn't say they don't matter. they matter significantly
30:08 less. >> Right. I guess what I'm saying is I think that the people who are who are
30:13 going to play that game are just actually playing a different game and
30:18 they can do very well in that game and have like all the results that they want
30:22 out of it. But it's very different. It is a It is like literally just like a
30:25 new game in the same way that I think if seven years ago you're making prestige
30:32 TV or movies and you looked at like Ryan Treyan and Mr. beast and you're like
30:37 what? He painted a circle and they have to these six strangers have to stay in
30:40 it and every 3 seconds something changes on the screen like that's not art. No,
30:44 that's not Breaking Bad. That's not Game of Thrones. You're not going to get
30:47 that. You know, you could say all those things. >> No, but I'm not criticizing it for that
30:50 reason. I'm criticizing it because of the the physics, the mechanics of it.
30:54 Often times the equation of influence involves time spent. And so the amount
30:58 of time you've spent with someone. So meaning the >> So I I wonder if it's gonna flip or I
31:04 wonder if volume is the other variable in this. And if you just said, okay, but
31:07 you're gonna see my face 30 times for every one time you're going to see that.
31:09 >> It could be. >> I wonder if that works. It might work.
31:11 You know, >> you just need to do it a lot. So like 60 seconds. Our podcast, you said the
31:17 average listen is 45 minutes and there's two a week. You just you're the volume
31:21 has to be the game. You better be Walmart. You better be turning that [ __ ]
31:23 out. >> Yeah. All right. I'll do two quick ones. Peptides. Peptides everywhere. I think
31:30 peptides are going to be here, there, everywhere. I think you're going to put
31:33 peptides in your nose. I think you're going to put them in your mouth. I think
31:35 they're going to put them in your butt. Peptides are everywhere. And it's a
31:40 classic like what the nerds are doing on the weekend, everybody's going to be
31:44 doing soon. Arguably, they already are because OMIC and the GLP ones, those are
31:50 peptides. But I'm just seeing people I would not expect, people I don't count
31:55 as biohackers who are very interested and jumping through a lot of hoops to
31:58 get peptides because you can't just get peptides easily and in a trustworthy
32:03 frictionless way. And so a great proxy for demand is like are you willing to,
32:07 you know, break the law and like do something sketchy for the thing you
32:11 want? Um well that's what's happening with peptides. I have, you know,
32:15 cousins, brother-in-law, like I have people who are not like dude just outing
32:19 him. God. >> Yeah. He's like, I got shoulder pain >> for Did he do BP57?
32:23 >> I don't know which one he's on, but yeah, he does probably doesn't even know
32:26 which one he's on. I got pain. This guy gave me this acronym and it my shoulder
32:30 feels better. I feel younger. >> I got friends sending me pictures of
32:34 themselves just absolutely ripped on the like, you know, the new version of the
32:37 Wolverine stack. >> Yeah. What's that what's that one called? I I for research we should find
32:41 out what that is and and start putting it in our bodies. >> Yeah. Exactly. So, I just think peptides
32:49 are this uh this thing that's got to be a big deal. And if you use proxy for
32:53 demand as people who are willing to jump through hoops, go through go to
32:58 untrusted sources. Imagine once somebody makes this easier to access, more easy
33:03 form factors, like get it to get it to gummies, get it to to pills, get it to
33:07 different form factors. As that happens over the next 10 years, I think peptides
33:11 will become a normal part of everyday life for people. In the same way you
33:15 take protein supplements and vitamins and um you know medicine when you're
33:19 sick, I think you're going to have enhancements through peptides.
33:23 >> I'm shocked that you're so interested in this and I think that you will never
33:26 take this, right? >> Sometimes I'm a user first and I become
33:29 an investor. Sometimes an investor first, I become a user. In this case,
33:33 I'm an investor. I'm I'm looking at it as an investor. I haven't made any
33:35 investments yet, but I'm hunting. Would you take it? >> I try not to be early to experimental
33:43 like health stuff. I think the riskreward doesn't really make a lot of
33:46 sense, but would I? Yeah, at a certain point I would. And at that, you know,
33:50 and I'm I'm happy to be late to certain parties. I would challenge you um about
33:55 investing. I do not think that these are particularly good businesses. I actually
33:58 don't take a lot of stuff anymore, but I used to like dabble with everything
34:02 because I I loved like trying new things and then I just found what works and I
34:05 just repeat that. But I don't run one of these businesses, but I am an investor
34:09 in one of them and I've like was a customer. People jump from one to one to
34:14 one. Like you you very easily can switch and there's not really a reason to stay
34:18 with someone for a very long time because in most cases they're just
34:22 selling the same thing at and and so anytime that you see there's a discount
34:26 or a doctor is going to be more liberal about what they prescribe or you could
34:30 just like tell someone give me this, you switch. It's it's very easy. And often
34:33 times, even though people say you have to take these take these things for
34:38 life, people don't. You just do it for 12 months, you feel good, and you're
34:40 like, I'm I'm going to bail. I'm going to get off of it. >> I'm glad that this is contrarian. I
34:43 thought that's going to be just too consensus. So, I appreciate that. Uh
34:46 that is not cons. >> Well, we've invested in one that's it's
34:50 killing it. Hone Health. They are killing it. But I guess what I'm saying
34:55 is I've seen like for example, uh we had more plates, more dates on uh Mer
34:59 Merrick Health, I think it was called. He has one of these companies and it
35:02 just like I've tried a bunch of them. They just seem like they're mostly
35:06 similar and I don't understand how you get locked in with someone for years.
35:09 Well, I think most people are not you. You're in the early adopter uh
35:14 experimentter cohort of people. Money is never made on you. Money is always made
35:18 on the uh early majority and late majority. So, >> you know how people like have you seen
35:22 those videos of people celebrating that they got their first customer? I'm
35:27 usually on the other end of that. I'm the one who's like just like here
35:30 I'll give you my money and uh I'll take a risk and then I'll bail it for 6
35:34 months. What's the sixth one? >> Okay. Sports betting and the
35:38 consequences. This is a trend that is in plain sight, but I think people
35:42 underestimate how big and how bad this is going to be. >> I'm shocked to hear you say that and
35:46 also I'm very happy to hear you say that. So basically I think there was an
35:50 article in the economist and they talked about the uh how sophisticated sports
35:55 betting companies are and basically the headline is whenever you make your first
36:00 bet they know to a high degree of certainty what type of customer you're
36:04 going to be and they manipulate you and the rest of their customers down to like
36:08 an amazing science in order to get the most amount of dollars from you.
36:12 >> Right? One gambling consultant told the economist, "By the time a customer
36:16 places his first bet, first bet on the sports book, they are 80 to 90% certain
36:21 they know the lifetime value. They know how big of a sucker you are from the
36:26 first bet. And they mathematically monitor players, create new risk score
36:30 every 6 to 8 hours. Basically, they're trying to figure out is this customer
36:34 going to become profitable on us? How do we monitor keep the keep the profitable
36:37 players out, keep the unprofitable players in?" And okay, so what what else
36:41 is interesting about this? There was new data about um like Kali and Poly Market.
36:47 >> How are those two different by the way? >> So they're both in the same category,
36:51 prediction markets, right? prediction market basically just says you're able
36:55 to wager what you think the outcome of an event is and they're markets meaning
37:00 unlike a sports book where there's a house that defines the rules of sorry
37:06 defines the odds the way a market works is the question is posed and then you
37:10 take the yes or no side and based on the volume of dollars that go into the yes
37:14 or no side you're basically competing in a free market against each other and
37:17 there's been some incredible things that have come from this right like um it is
37:22 more accurate than the news, right? So, a lot of people go to the news to try to
37:25 get a sense of what's happening or what's going to happen, but the news is
37:31 far less accurate than just going and looking at with skin in the game what
37:36 the poly market says of what is actually going to happen. Um, what are the odds
37:41 say is going to happen and the odds change in real time as new information
37:45 goes in. And so, you here you know, let's just take the incentives as an
37:49 example. the incentives of a journalist who's writing for the New York Times or
37:52 the Wall Street Journal, these extremely prestigious, you know, supposed truth
37:58 seeeking uh uh platforms. Well, their incentive is how do I get as many clicks
38:04 as possible on this headline? Um how do I make sure that nobody unsubscribes
38:07 because I said something that they don't like, right? Uh that they canceled their
38:10 their subscription because I told them an unpopular truth. And so those that
38:15 you know fundamentally my incentive loop is that now you take the incentives of
38:18 poly market. Somebody who's betting yes is saying I'm gonna I'm gonna win or
38:24 lose money by being right or wrong. And so you know and the high the more
38:27 conviction I have the more money I would place on this wager. And the conviction
38:31 if I'm taking if I have conviction based on you know gut and superstition over
38:35 time I'm going to lose all my money. I'll be out of the market. But if I have
38:38 conviction based off of research or insider information or you know um uh
38:43 in-depth analysis, I will make money and I'll have more capital to bring to this
38:47 market over time. So that's what that's the category. Okay. Now what's
38:51 interesting, they're now doing over two billion a week in just sports betting
38:53 volume. >> Poly market >> the common both of them um both of them
38:57 together. >> And what percentage of the revenue do they get? They're taking I don't know
39:03 it's less than like a it's like a point point whatever percent 0.12 I don't know
39:07 what it is some very very small vig that they take um on on the transaction
39:11 >> and how much are they doing in a week >> two billion on just sports and so like
39:15 what's happened is that these things started where they were doing you know
39:19 like who's going to win the election and are we going to end up in a war in
39:22 Ukraine and that those were very likeformational things in order to inform like you know
39:29 it's in some ways it's a it's a signal or a hedge against uh you know your
39:32 maybe a stock market performance or whatnot. But sports betting is just so
39:37 popular that like as a percentage share of action, it's just taking over these
39:40 platforms and they're essentially becoming sports betting apps that are
39:45 just like in this like loophole of regulation where you can't make you
39:50 can't do sports betting, but you can do prediction markets about sports.
39:53 >> And this is uh legal in all 50 states. >> Yeah. Um or sorry, I I I shouldn't say
39:57 that. I'm not I'm not as well versed in it. Kelshi based on the way they're
40:01 regulated cuz like prediction markets are regulated by like commodities or
40:04 something like that, the commodities market. And so they are and that's why
40:08 if you open up the Robin Hood app, you could just bet on any game right now and
40:13 it's powered by Khi. Uh and I think they're going to switch off off of KHI
40:17 at some point cuz why are they giving KI so much volume? >> If you were a politician and you could
40:22 if you were the dictator, uh what would you do? >> Oh god, that's a lot of power. What
40:26 would I do? Uh yeah, >> I'd have people feeding me grapes and
40:31 I'd have about this. Um you know, this is pretty dangerous. Like there's like
40:34 my, you know, I'm coaching this high school basketball team and like, you
40:37 know, it's interesting cuz you're around teenagers. You get to see like what are
40:40 they interested in? What do they do? >> Do they talk about it all the time?
40:43 >> They're talking about it all the time. They're like overunders.
40:45 >> That's crazy. >> You know, they don't just watch the
40:47 games. They bet on the games. They're probably betting very small amounts
40:50 maybe on their dad's account. I don't even know how they're doing it exactly,
40:53 but it's definitely something that they love to do and that they're doing a lot
40:57 of. And the the problem is it's one sports betting and I take it this take
41:01 this as somebody who's wasted far too much of their life gambling whether it's
41:05 poker or sports betting. Sports betting is one of these things that it's dumb to
41:10 do but it's easy to look smart. So like it's a dumb activity to do but if you
41:16 cherry pick a good bet you can share it, you can tell people about it and you get
41:20 to look smart for a moment. And like the real gains in life come from things that
41:24 look dumb to do but are actually smart to do. Those are like that's where all
41:29 the real alpha of life is. And of course there's the obvious things, things that
41:32 are smart to do that look smart to do. And you should do those too. That's like
41:35 you know the sort of highly competitive things that that people do like going to
41:38 college or you know like trying to get a good job right like sounds smart is
41:42 smart and then you know and so I think that the problem is sports betting falls
41:45 in this one. It's obviously super addictive. Obviously, there's going to
41:48 be a lot of people who, you know, lose a lot of money, waste a lot of time, get
41:53 addicted to this stuff. There's NBA players that get death threats
41:58 constantly because like some guys got a $200 parlay on them getting 11 rebounds
42:04 instead of nine. And um you know, in his DM, every day he goes home and from
42:07 basketball, if you talk to any player, like their DMs are just filled with
42:11 angry voice notes and death threats from a guy who needed them to get an extra
42:14 rebound for their parlay. And you could do this for college sports, too.
42:17 >> You could do this for college, which is toxic now at the younger level, right?
42:22 Um it's crazy. Like I put this in my 52 Tuesday, like some guy's rooting for
42:25 World War II because he's going to win $390 on Poly Market, right? Like I think
42:31 it's um so I I tend to I would say I'm a very moderate person politically. Um I I
42:37 disagree and agree with people on both sides. And also uh I would say I'm very
42:40 pro- capitalist. And this is one of the free time, one of the few times where
42:44 I'm like, "No, I'm I'm definitely not in favor of the market just doing what it
42:47 wants to do." In this case, I definitely think that regulation would be nice. I
42:50 don't exactly I don't I'm an idiot. I don't know how it needs to be done, but
42:54 this seems very dangerous. I think what will happen is I think that like a
42:59 college or professional sports uh sports player is going to uh be murdered or uh
43:04 there's going to be like something crazy that happens in politics where the
43:09 person made the decision just to get the payout on the bet. >> Yeah. And there's there's already been
43:13 players who have lost their whether it's college scholarships. There's NBA
43:17 players that are getting fined or banned from the league permanently um because
43:23 they they told their homies, "Hey, I'm out today. It's not reported yet." Or
43:27 worse, right? There's been guys who like owe people money in the mafia from their
43:31 poker losses in the poker games. They're like, "Hey, to make it back, I'm gonna
43:34 pull a hammy in the first quarter. Just bet my under. You'll make it back." But
43:37 it's too obvious cuz somebody suddenly slams $50,000 on this obscure player's
43:44 under and then you know the NBA bans that player, they lose their $30 million
43:46 contract. >> I remember when we were younger, there was this one player. He was like uh the
43:52 superstar quarterback for I think Ohio. What's his last name? Like Owens. Uh and
43:57 he got in trouble for um getting free tattoos from a tattoo shop and in in
44:02 exchange for like uh some jerseys or something like that and he was banned.
44:04 >> Oh yeah. Yeah. He was like signing. He like signed a jersey.
44:09 >> I think he got kicked out or he It was huge. It was a huge deal. It was
44:13 national news and he signed jerseys and gave it to a I think a tattoo parlor in
44:17 exchange for free tattoos. Do you remember that? >> Known as Tattoo Gate. Uh yeah, it was it
44:22 was Terrell Prior. >> This was years ago and this was a huge
44:24 deal. And I think he was like the hottest guy going and he did this and
44:27 that was like the biggest scandal I remember in years. It's going to get way
44:31 worse. It's going to get way worse. Dude, this is where they're what they're
44:33 doing instead of drinking alcohol. I'd rather people drink, by the way, than
44:37 than do this [ __ ] >> Yeah. Gambling instead. Yeah. So, those
44:41 are my trends. Give me a favorite and a least favorite. >> I think alcohol is going to get popular
44:46 again next generation. I think it's going to I think that whatever the
44:48 generation >> generation >> Yeah. Whatever your parents do, you're
44:52 going to do the opposite. Um I think sports betting in the next 5 years is
44:56 going to be incredibly heavily regulated and companies like Poly Market and Khi
45:01 are going to crumble. >> Wow. Big big predictions there.
45:04 >> Let me tell you one thing that I saw really quick. >> Uh did you see Hermosy and Tony Robbins
45:10 do a podcast together? >> I didn't see it. I thought I I think I
45:12 saw it on YouTube, but I didn't click it. Is it good? >> Yeah. The reason it was good is I saw
45:18 two things yesterday that I thought were pretty funny or interesting. One was
45:22 Tony Robbins and Alex Herozi. And it was basically a coaching session where Tony
45:26 Robbins was coaching Hermoszie. And that was kind of cool because Hermosi is
45:29 usually giving advice. And this one he appeared >> a student. a student. Uh, so I was
45:33 almost gonna say the word lost. I don't think it was lost, but he was like,
45:36 "Here's my issues. Help me." Um, and then the second thing that I saw was
45:40 Scott Galloway. Was that is it Davos or Davos? Like the Davos? The I don't even
45:44 know what it's called. >> Never in my life have I had a
45:47 conversation about Davos. Like I don't give a [ __ ] Uh, but I guess it's where
45:51 like the global superpowers meet and somehow decide like who's going to uh
45:56 win what. And Scott Galloway was like, "I think I'm just going to go home. I'd
46:00 rather be home with my kids than be here. >> Did you see that?
46:04 >> No, I didn't. Was he Was there anything particular he was like by I'm going to
46:08 give you a takeaway. Here's what's going on. But first, let me say I think I'm
46:12 just going to leave. I don't really care. I don't care about this at all.
46:14 I'm just going to go home and hang out with my boys. I really miss him. And I
46:18 thought that was cool because uh in the Hermosi podcast, he basically was
46:22 explaining Hermosi was like, you know, I've been experiencing a lot of success
46:27 lately, but I feel empty. And there's something that you and I I think maybe
46:31 you say it more than me talking about seasons. And Tony Robbins was basically
46:35 like, "Dude, you've like primed yourself to only care about like being aggressive
46:41 and succeeding and getting after it." And you just told me that you said
46:45 basically every waking hour I'm working. And the problem with that is not that
46:49 that exists. That's okay to exist. The problem is is that you don't also have
46:52 these other states of life or these other like feelings where now this for
46:57 these next few hours you you can turn work off and you can feel enjoyment and
47:02 it was this whole idea of seasons and I think Scott Galloway was the same way
47:04 which is like you know I get after it sometimes other times I want to like
47:07 enjoy life and be with my kids and I thought that was really interesting
47:11 because we talk about work a lot here and the people who listen to this are
47:13 listening because I mean the podcast is called my first million it's like making
47:17 money and I think that we actually do a pretty decent job. I think that's one of
47:20 the reasons why people like us although it's not necessarily intentional where
47:24 we laugh and we have fun and I thought that this was just like super
47:27 interesting to see such a serious person and such a successful person like herosy
47:31 complain about not being happy even though he's succeeding and what I've
47:36 realized I I realized this when I read Robert Green's book human nature which
47:40 is humans are humans and you and I have been very lucky to talk to billionaires
47:43 to all these successful people and often times when they're on our podcast we're
47:46 asking them questions and they come off they're giving advice and so they're not
47:50 going purposely appear weak, but we've gotten to become friends with a lot of
47:54 these people. And it's really cool to see behind the scenes that the people
47:57 who we look up to, and it was cool that Hermosi did this where he showed like
48:01 weakness. He even cried a little on the podcast, which was uh I didn't think
48:04 that he had that gear. >> My boy's got range. >> Yeah, he has range. I did not think that
48:08 that was going to come out. >> You see Jim Carrey in like a a serious
48:11 movie or something. >> Proportions. Uh and I thought it was
48:15 cool. I thought it was cool and it was a really good reminder and I want to give
48:18 that to that reminder to people that a the people who you look up to, you and I
48:22 uh some people actually shockingly look up to us, but we have hung out with
48:25 people who we look up to on this podcast and the people who others look up to
48:29 we've had on this podcast. It's cool to see that everyone complains about the
48:33 same [ __ ] and has has complained about the same [ __ ] and also the advice I
48:37 think that Anthony or Tony Robbins gave. It's sort of the same advice.
48:40 >> Anthony, >> that's we're friends. >> That was incredible. Hey dog, we're
48:45 buddies. It's sort of been like the same feedback like on how to like live life.
48:51 Have you heard of that song by the birds? Uh I don't want to sing it cuz I
48:55 look stupid, but it's like uh to everything turn. You know that song?
49:00 >> I've never I've never heard that. No. No. >> That's crazy. Okay, so this song was
49:04 from the ' 60s. This song, let me tell you an interesting fact. This song, I
49:07 was looking it up. I was like, I recognize this. So, I went to Catholic
49:09 school my whole life. We had to read the Bible. This song is word for word a
49:13 Bible verse. And I'm not a religious person, but because I like read the
49:16 Bible so much as a kid, I had to like read it. It's word for word a Bible
49:19 verse. And the And here's listen to the words. It says, "To everything there's a
49:22 season, a time to whatever. To everything there's a season, a time to
49:25 be born, a time to die." But then it goes, "A time to kill, a time to heal, a
49:28 time to weep, a time to laugh." And basically further down the verse, um, it
49:32 says like, "Now go and eat your bread, drink your wine, be merry. Uh, God has
49:36 already like approved what you're going to do. Whatever happens happens." So
49:39 like these are like old issues that people have cared about for thousands or
49:43 tens of thousands of years, which is work hard sometimes, enjoy yourself,
49:47 some sometimes, be sad sometimes, be happy sometimes. There's a season for
49:50 all of it. >> And it's just so interesting to me that we all and myself included complain
49:55 about the same things and we have for tens of thousands of years. And like
50:00 >> the advice that Tony Robbins gave of like there's a season, be happy. That's
50:03 literally the same advice from like the Bible and from this song. It's kind of
50:06 interesting. >> Yeah. you know, there's um uh had an interesting conversation with um this
50:15 basketball coach. So, we had just played a game and um the co the head coach of
50:19 my team that I'm coaching this high school basketball team, the head coach
50:23 of the team is really young. He's 25 years old. This his first first head
50:27 coaching job. And he got the recommendation to get the job from his
50:30 old college coach. So, there's this guy who was his college coach. He's kind of
50:33 like a legendary community college coach. He coached um at Diablo Valley
50:38 for like 30 years or something. He's like one of the winningest coaches and
50:42 he's retired now. And so he comes to our games sometimes. He sits in the crowd
50:46 and he's just like up in the bleachers and he's just observing. And then
50:51 occasionally afterwards after after the game, after we talk to the players, we
50:54 hang out in the locker room and he comes down and he gives us kind of like the
50:58 old coach's wisdom and it's the best. It's the best. That's like my favorite
51:01 time in this whole thing. You know, couldn't have predicted it, but that's
51:04 like my favorite time. And so we had just won a game that we kind of weren't
51:08 supposed to win. We were these underdogs and we like played amazing and we won.
51:12 And then we were playing the best team in our league and we were coming off
51:15 that win and we're like, "Yeah, we're going to do this." And um we just got
51:20 smacked and we lost by 50 points. It was embarrassing. We only scored 15 points
51:23 in an entire basketball game. It's hard to do that. And it was just terrible.
51:27 Like we were scar played scared. It was it was just bad. So, um, coach comes in
51:35 and he just goes, um, you know, two days ago you're unstoppable. You're the best team
51:41 ever. Today, you can't do anything right. You know, you're the worst. And
51:45 he just he just said, he goes, "The number one thing you're going to learn
51:48 as a coach is that victory and defeat are liars. They're both liars. And once
51:53 you learn that they're both liars, then you can become a great coach." And I
51:57 just love that. And it was like uh my my roommate in college, Trevor, he had this
52:02 his dad gave him this gift uh when he went to college. And like I went to Duke
52:06 and so there's a lot of rich kids with rich parents who's you know they give
52:10 them this like air conditioning device and this like you know like their their
52:14 rooms were like tricked out and Trevor's parents were both PE coaches in Wyoming
52:18 for their whole careers. And so when they drove him out to they drove him out
52:21 to college and then they his dad gave him this po like this poster and had a
52:25 poem on it and it's this poem called If. I don't know if you you've ever read it
52:29 as if by Rudy Rar Kipling and on it it has the same line and this was I stared
52:34 at this thing like every day in college because it was just the only thing on
52:38 our walls and it's the the line from it is it says if you can meet triumph and
52:43 disaster and treat those two imposttors just the same and the last line is um
52:49 you'll be a man my son and um his dad gave him this this poster and I kind of
52:53 by proxy got this poster from that but it's this idea that like the highs and
52:58 the lows are liars. The wins and the the the the losses are liars. Victory and uh
53:03 you know triumph and disaster, they're impostors. And once you recognize that,
53:07 then you're free. Then you can actually do what you need to do. And so like you
53:10 know where you're talking about hormos and being happy and success and all
53:13 these things. I think you know the challenge is that we think success is
53:17 something that's real and final and lasting and that was the meaning of this
53:22 whole thing of all that of all that effort and then if it's failure that
53:26 it's real and going to be lasting and that it's it means something and uh once
53:31 you realize that like no it's they're neither real nor lasting nor were they
53:35 the meaning in the first place like then you're actually playing the real game.
53:39 >> MFM wisdom corner. >> Yeah. Welcome to Guru Corner. No advice
53:44 given. Look, you just quoted an old coach. I quoted uh Tony Robbins in the
53:49 Bible. I mean, no advice given, just messengers. Um, all right. That's it.
$

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*Get our free database with 140+ business ideas:* https://clickhubspot.com/vmk Episode 793: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk about 6 ideas that will explode in 2026. — Show Notes: (0:00) Trend: Alcohol is in the gutter (8:12) Trend: Voltra (16:14) Trend: Physical AI (22:51) Trend: Too many podcasts, too little time (31:23) Trend: Peptides, peptides everywhere (35:34) Trend: Sports betting and the consequences (45:03) Hormozi X Tony Robbins —

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